Peak Oil Theories
Optimists in the oil industry argue that peak oil theorists often underestimate the amount of oil reserves. Also, optimists argue that technology should advance quickly enough to create new oil fields and extract oil from currently inaccessible prices. The rise in oil prices will only serve to increase the return from investing in new technology. It is argued that the current rise in oil prices has not yet been reflected in investment decisions. There is a significant time lag between oil prices and investment; the current high oil prices should lead to a boom in oil investment in the near future.
Pessimists (or realists as they like to call themselves) argue that the tipping point has already been reached or will be very soon and the current oil price rise is merely an indicator of future rises to come. Peak oil theorists, such as Mr Simmons, argue that many future predictions of supply increases are merely wishful thinking. Evidence by EIA suggesting the oil industry is close to 99% capacity, suggests that supply is very inelastic in relation to rising prices; this only goes to show that supply constraints are already a problem.
Everyone agrees that oil has to run out sometime. The debate is when this tipping point will occur. If it occurs soon, the price rises could cause widespread economic hardship and stunt global growth. If this scenario were likely to occur, it suggests there is market failure in the development of new technologies and therefore requires government intervention to speed new technologies. If, however, oil prices will stabilise it gives credence to those who believe free markets can develop the necessary technology.
It is worth noting that in 1999, the Economist, like many other economists and oil specialists predicted that oil supplies were plentiful and 'dirt cheap' oil would continue for the foreseeable future.The longer high oil prices are sustained, the more importance people will attach to peak oil theories.
Life Without Petroleum
What would it be like to live without Petroleum? Well when you loose the 20th century tool
(Petroleum), the substance that brought us out of the Cowboy and Indian age into the Technology age, you
know there is going to be problems and major changes in the life of every human being and animal in the
world. Oil has transformed the lives of individuals and the economics of nations. The discovery of oil
creates wealth: modern, industrial towns thieve where once there was only deserts and new jobs are
brought to areas of big unemployment.
Just think, no gas for your car, no candles because there is no wax, no fabrics, plastics, and
medicines, and building materials because there are no petrochemicals (useful substances that are derived
from oil.) So when you wake-up in the morning and you go to drive to work, you find out that you cant
drive yourself because you have no gas and also because you dont have any oil to lubricate the parts of
your car.. And the place you worked at for years that is only about a 30 minute drive from your house is a
5 hour bike trip.
I think that everyone in world is just like smokers and drug attics, but unlike them we are in a lot
deeper than any drug attics or smoker. What we as a world are addicted to is Petroleum. The with drawl
symptoms for Petroleum are far worst than you could ever have for any drugs. We have became addicted
to a substance that we knew we would loose one day, but we always that it would come after we are dead
or we would find something to replace Petroleum, but we never guessed that it would be coming over the
mountain in just a few decades.
But this isn't the end of the world many people say. We have been preparing for this moment of
the world without oil for many years. We have already created solar cars and and solar panels for your
house. So many people would say that we are prepared for the fourth coming events of no Petroleum left
on the Earth. But I say we still have a long way to go and that we still dont completely comprehend how
much we depend on and are addicted to Petroleum.
Just think about something for a moment, just think about what you use plastics for. The look
around your room and try to find all the products in your room that are made of or have plastics in them. I
bet that over 75% of the items in your room are made of or have plastics in them, and think of the same toy
or thing without that plastics, strange huh? If the world could not produce anymore plastics, we would
have to recycle everything that has plastics in it and not through any plastics away because like I said we
are very dependent on our plastics witch are made from oil.
Just think back to the oil crush of the 1970s. During that time everyone went crazy because they
didnt have much oil, and that was just a oil crunch not the extinct shin of oil. That one event I think
opened the eyes to the world and gave them just a taste of what the world would be like without Petroleum,
and how dependent we are to it.
My thoughts on this issue is that this addiction we have to oil could destroy us at the end. We
are a world dependent on transportation. If you want to go somewhere you dont walk or ride your bike,
you jump into your car and drive there. We are also very used to the distributing process were most of your
food comes a long ways away by the way of trucks, trains, or planes. Just think how empty your stores
would be without there daily food supply by trucks. And remember that without gas, those trucks, trains,
and planes dont move one inch. Without the food being brought in, were would we get our food, we could
still get it from some of the same sources but it would take a lot longer
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Related TopicsPeak oilEnvironmental economicsPetroleum politicsPetroleumFuturologyVegetable oils as alternative energyEnergy crisis
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